Myth: The high school dropout rate is climbing.
Fact: The high school dropout rate is falling.
Summary
Statistics by the U.S. Census show that the high school graduation
rate has been increasing for many decades now, and for all sub-groups
of the population. This has occurred at a time when public educators
are spending more money on programs designed to keep students
in school. Their success is a vindication of that policy.
Argument
The claim that more and more American students are dropping
out of high school is false. According to the U.S. Census, more
young people are graduating from high school than ever before
-- a trend has continued for decades, and among all sub-groups
of the population.
In 1970, 75 percent of young people aged 25 to 29 had graduated
from high school. By 1990, that had risen to 86 percent. (1)
The following chart shows the rise in high school graduation rates
for all sub-groups (except Asians, whose figures are unavailable):
Percent of population over age 25 who have completed 4 years of
high school or college (2)
High School:
Year Total White Black Hispanic
------------------------------------
1960 41.1% 43.2 20.1 NA
1970 52.3 54.5 31.4 32.1
1980 66.5 68.8 51.2 44.0
1990 77.6 79.1 66.2 50.8
1994 80.9 82.0 72.9 53.3
College:
Year Total White Black Hispanic
------------------------------------
1960 7.7% 8.1 3.1 NA
1970 10.7 11.3 4.4 4.5
1980 16.2 17.1 8.4 7.6
1990 21.3 22.0 11.3 9.2
1994 22.2 22.9 12.9 9.1
As for the high-school dropout rate itself, the trends are equally
encouraging:
High school dropout rate, age 14-24 (3)
Year Total White Black Hispanic
------------------------------------
1970 12.2% 10.8 22.2 NA
1980 12.0 11.3 16.0 29.5
1990 10.1 10.1 10.9 26.8
1993 9.2 8.8 11.2 22.9
Why the lower dropout rates?
The above numbers refute conservative rhetoric that spending
more on public education has only resulted in worse outcomes.
In fact, about 3 percent of the increased spending on public education
since 1965 has been devoted to keeping students in school. (4)
Public educators have also spent more on school lunches and transportation,
which provide further means and incentives for poor students to
attend classes. Their success in reducing the dropout rate would
indicate that this policy is effective, and conservatives have
no case for arguing otherwise.
Return to Overview
Endnotes:
1. U.S. Bureau of the Census.
2. U.S. Bureau of the Census, U.S. Census of the Population,
U.S. Summary, PC80-1-C1 and Current Population Reports
P20-455, P20-462, P20-465RV, P20-475 and unpublished data.
3. U.S. Bureau of the Census, Current Population Reports, P20-479
and earlier reports. A dropout is defined as a person not in regular
school who has not completed the 12th grade nor received
a general equivalency degree.
4. Richard Rothstein, "The
Myth of Public School Failure,"
The American Prospect no. 13, Spring, 1993.